A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
